risk

Taxation Risk

Taxation Risk Jonathan Poland

Taxation risks refer to the potential for a business to face financial or reputational harm due to issues related to taxes. These risks can arise from a variety of sources, including errors in tax reporting, non-compliance with tax laws, and changes in tax regulations.

One common source of taxation risk is the risk of errors in tax reporting. This could include mistakes in calculating tax liability, failing to report all taxable income, or incorrectly claiming deductions or credits. These errors can lead to tax penalties and interest, as well as damage to a company’s reputation.

Another source of taxation risk is the risk of non-compliance with tax laws. This could include failing to file required tax returns or failing to pay taxes on time. Non-compliance with tax laws can lead to financial penalties and damage to a company’s reputation.

Finally, taxation risks can also arise from changes in tax regulations. This could include changes in tax rates, changes to the types of income or expenses that are taxable, or changes to the rules for claiming deductions or credits. These changes can affect a company’s tax liability and may require businesses to adjust their tax planning strategies.

To mitigate taxation risks, it is important for businesses to have robust tax compliance processes in place. This can include hiring competent tax professionals, staying up to date on changes in tax laws and regulations, and regularly reviewing and updating tax policies and procedures. In addition, businesses should carefully review their tax returns and financial records to ensure that all required information is accurately reported. By taking these steps, businesses can help reduce the risk of tax-related issues and protect their financial and reputational health.

Revenue Risk

Revenue Risk Jonathan Poland

Revenue risk refers to any event or circumstance that could potentially negatively affect your future revenue. This could include external factors like economic conditions and internal factors like product launches. These risks may not be under your direct control, but they can still impact your revenue.

There are many types of revenue risk that a business may face, including:

  1. Market risk: This type of risk refers to the potential for changes in market conditions to negatively impact revenue. This could include changes in consumer demand, competition, or regulatory changes.
  2. Financial risk: Financial risk refers to the potential for changes in financial conditions to affect revenue. This could include changes in interest rates, exchange rates, or the availability of credit.
  3. Operational risk: Operational risk refers to the potential for problems in the day-to-day operations of a business to affect revenue. This could include supply chain disruptions, equipment failures, or natural disasters.
  4. Reputational risk: Reputational risk refers to the potential for damage to a company’s reputation to affect revenue. This could include negative publicity or customer complaints.
  5. Strategic risk: Strategic risk refers to the potential for a company’s business strategy to fail and negatively impact revenue. This could include poor product launches, failed mergers and acquisitions, or inadequate marketing efforts.
  6. Political risk: Political risk refers to the potential for changes in the political landscape to affect a company’s revenue. This could include changes in government policies, trade agreements, or other political developments.
  7. Legal risk: Legal risk refers to the potential for legal issues to affect a company’s revenue. This could include lawsuits, regulatory fines, or other legal problems.
  8. Cybersecurity risk: Cybersecurity risk refers to the potential for a cyber attack or data breach to affect a company’s revenue. This could include the theft of sensitive customer data or the disruption of business operations.

Settlement Risk

Settlement Risk Jonathan Poland

Settlement risk is the risk that a trading counterparty will not deliver a security or asset as agreed upon in a trade. This risk is most commonly associated with the trading of securities on financial markets. To address this risk, many countries have laws and institutions in place that provide guarantees on settlement, including time limits for completing transactions.

Historically, the foreign exchange market has been a significant source of settlement risk. For example, the collapse of Herstatt Bank in Germany in 1974 resulted in the bank failing to settle several major transactions with foreign counterparties, leading to improvements in international settlement practices, such as the adoption of real-time gross settlement systems that execute transactions in real-time and are considered final.

Systematic Risk

Systematic Risk Jonathan Poland

Systemic risk is the risk that a problem in one part of the financial system will have broader impacts on the market as a whole. This type of risk is often referred to as “contagion” because it can spread from one financial institution or market to others, potentially leading to a financial crisis.

There are several factors that can contribute to systemic risk, including the interconnectedness of financial institutions, the complexity of financial products and markets, and the presence of leverage (borrowing) in the financial system. In some cases, systemic risk can be exacerbated by regulatory failures or the inability of policymakers to effectively address problems in the financial system.

To manage systemic risk, regulators and policymakers may take a number of steps, including strengthening capital and liquidity requirements for financial institutions, implementing macroprudential tools to address broad risks in the financial system, and establishing crisis management and resolution frameworks to address problems in specific financial institutions or markets.

In summary, systemic risk is the risk that a problem in one part of the financial system will have broader impacts on the market as a whole. It can be caused by a variety of factors, including the interconnectedness of financial institutions, the complexity of financial products and markets, and the presence of leverage in the financial system. Regulators and policymakers can take a number of steps to manage systemic risk, including strengthening capital and liquidity requirements, implementing macroprudential tools, and establishing crisis management and resolution frameworks.

Here are a few examples of systemic risk events throughout history:

  1. The global financial crisis of 2008: This crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which led to a wave of defaults on mortgage-backed securities. The crisis spread to other parts of the financial system, including banks and insurance companies, and eventually led to a global economic recession.
  2. The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998: LTCM was a hedge fund that made highly leveraged bets on the direction of interest rates. When Russia defaulted on its debt and triggered a market panic, LTCM’s bets went bad and the hedge fund was forced to sell its assets, leading to a wave of selling that spread to other markets.
  3. The Asian financial crisis of 1997: This crisis was triggered by a sudden outflow of capital from countries in the region, which led to a series of currency devaluations and financial collapses. The crisis spread to other parts of the world, including Russia and Latin America, and had significant global economic impacts.
  4. The Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s: This crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. savings and loan industry, which had made a large number of risky loans and investments. The crisis spread to other parts of the financial system, including banks and insurance companies, and had significant economic impacts.
  5. The Great Depression of the 1930s: This was a global economic crisis that was triggered by a series of financial collapses and economic downturns in the United States and Europe. The crisis spread to other parts of the world and had long-lasting economic impacts.

Volatility Risk

Volatility Risk Jonathan Poland

Volatility risk is the possibility that changes in the volatility of a risk factor will lead to losses. Volatility is a measure of how much prices fluctuate over time, and can be calculated using various methods based on the historical prices of an asset or security. When the volatility of an asset or investment changes unexpectedly, it can result in significant price fluctuations, which can lead to losses.

Here are a few examples of volatility risk:

  1. A company’s stock price experiences sudden, dramatic fluctuations due to changes in market conditions or changes in the company’s financial performance. This can result in losses for investors who bought or sold the stock at the wrong time.
  2. A currency experiences sudden, significant changes in its exchange rate due to changes in economic conditions or political events. This can result in losses for investors who hold assets denominated in that currency.
  3. A commodity, such as oil or gold, experiences sudden, significant changes in its price due to supply and demand imbalances or other market factors. This can result in losses for investors who hold futures contracts or other investments tied to that commodity.
  4. A bond issuer experiences a credit downgrade or default, leading to sudden, significant changes in the value of its bonds. This can result in losses for investors who hold those bonds.
  5. A real estate investment experiences sudden, significant changes in its value due to changes in market conditions or other factors. This can result in losses for investors who hold that property or securities tied to it.

What is Stagflation?

What is Stagflation? Jonathan Poland

Stagflation is a period of high inflation, low economic growth and high unemployment. Stagflation is a economic phenomenon in which an economy experiences both stagnant economic growth and high inflation. In other words, it is a situation in which the overall price level in an economy is rising, but economic growth is slow or stagnant. This can be a challenging situation for governments, businesses, and individuals, as it can lead to rising costs and declining purchasing power, without the corresponding increase in wages and other income that typically accompanies economic growth.

There are several factors that can contribute to stagflation, including supply shocks, such as sudden increases in the price of raw materials or energy; monetary policy mistakes, such as maintaining high interest rates for too long; and structural problems in the economy, such as low productivity or a lack of competition.

To combat stagflation, governments and central banks may take a number of actions, including adjusting monetary policy, such as lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply, to stimulate economic growth; implementing fiscal policy measures, such as increasing government spending or cutting taxes, to boost demand; and addressing structural issues in the economy, such as improving productivity or increasing competition.

In summary, stagflation is a situation in which an economy experiences both stagnant economic growth and high inflation. It can be caused by a variety of factors, and can be difficult to address, as it requires both demand-side and supply-side solutions. Governments and central banks can take a variety of actions to try to combat stagflation, including adjusting monetary and fiscal policy and addressing structural issues in the economy.

Refinancing Risk

Refinancing Risk Jonathan Poland

Refinancing risk is the risk that a borrower will be unable to secure new debt to replace an existing debt obligation, potentially leading to financial losses. This risk is particularly relevant for businesses, organizations, or individuals who need to obtain new debt to meet their existing debt obligations as they come due. If these borrowers are unable to find new sources of debt, they may face financial losses, such as the need to shut down a profitable business. The following are a few examples of refinancing risk.

Short Term Debt

A house builder takes on large amounts of short term debt to fund its projects. The company must regularly replace this debt with new debt. This strategy works for several years until credit markets suddenly tighten and banks become unwilling to offer new debt to the company. As a result, the builder needs to sell some of its properties at a large discount in order to quickly raise money to cover its short term debt obligations. This results in a sizable financial loss.

Long Term Debt

An electronics company makes a large offering of 5 year bonds. The bonds are structured with small payments in the first four years followed by large balloon payments in the last year. The company assumes that it will be able to make these balloon payments with new bond issues. When the balloon payments come due the company has a failed product launch that damages its profitability and financial condition. The company is unable to find financing to cover the balloon payments and must issue new equity at a discount to market prices. Its stock price plunges dramatically as existing shareholders are diluted by the issuance of new shares.

Market Risk

Market Risk Jonathan Poland

Market risk is the possibility that the value of an investment will decline due to changes in market conditions. This risk is often quantified using a measure called volatility, which estimates the likelihood of price fluctuations based on an investment’s past price movements. Market risk can affect the value of various types of investments, including stocks, bonds, and commodities.

There are several types of market risk that can affect the value of investments:

  1. Interest rate risk: This is the risk that changes in interest rates will impact the value of an investment. For example, if a bond issuer raises interest rates, the value of existing bonds may decline.
  2. Inflation risk: This is the risk that the purchasing power of an investment will be eroded by inflation. For example, if the price of goods and services increases over time, the value of an investment may not keep up with these increases.
  3. Credit risk: This is the risk that a borrower will default on a loan or bond, leading to a loss for the investor.
  4. Currency risk: This is the risk that changes in exchange rates will affect the value of an investment. For example, if the value of a foreign currency declines relative to the investor’s domestic currency, the value of an investment denominated in that foreign currency may also decline.
  5. Political risk: This is the risk that political events or changes in government policy will impact the value of an investment. For example, a change in tax laws or regulations could affect the profitability of a company, leading to a decline in its stock price.
  6. Event risk: This is the risk that a specific event, such as a natural disaster or a company’s earnings announcement, will affect the value of an investment.
  7. Systemic risk: This is the risk that a problem in one part of the financial system, such as a financial crisis, will have broader impacts on the market as a whole.
  8. Volatility risk: This is the risk that an investment’s price will fluctuate significantly over a short period of time. This risk is often measured using the concept of volatility, which estimates the likelihood of price fluctuations based on an investment’s past price movements.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity Risk Jonathan Poland

Liquidity risk is the risk that a financial institution or company will not be able to meet its financial obligations when they are due, either because it is unable to sell assets quickly enough to raise the necessary cash or because there are insufficient buyers for the assets. This can occur for a variety of reasons, including market volatility, changes in regulatory requirements, or a sudden decrease in the value of a company’s assets.

There are several types of liquidity risk, including funding liquidity risk, which is the risk that an institution will not be able to obtain the necessary funding to meet its financial obligations; market liquidity risk, which is the risk that an institution will not be able to sell its assets quickly enough to raise the necessary cash; and funding and market liquidity risk, which is the combination of the two.

To manage liquidity risk, financial institutions and companies can take a number of steps, including maintaining a sufficient level of liquid assets, such as cash and highly liquid securities, to meet short-term obligations; diversifying funding sources; and establishing lines of credit with banks or other financial institutions. They can also use financial instruments, such as repurchase agreements and securities lending, to help manage liquidity in times of stress.

It is important for financial institutions and companies to carefully manage their liquidity risk, as a failure to meet financial obligations can have serious consequences, including bankruptcy, loss of investor confidence, and damage to the company’s reputation. Regulators also pay close attention to liquidity risk, and may require financial institutions to hold certain levels of liquid assets or maintain minimum levels of funding.

In summary, liquidity risk is the risk that a financial institution or company will not be able to meet its financial obligations when they are due, either because it is unable to sell assets quickly enough to raise the necessary cash or because there are insufficient buyers for the assets. It is important to carefully manage liquidity risk to avoid serious consequences and to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements. The following are examples of liquidity risk.

Accounts Receivable

An IT consulting firm relies on reasonably timely customer payments in order to meet quarterly cash needs. A dispute with a large customer results in a sudden decline in cash flows and the firm misses a payroll payment. This results in compliance issues, fines and a severe decline in reputation and employee satisfaction.

Bank Deposits

Generally speaking, banks don’t have the cash that would be required if all customers were to withdraw their deposits all at once. If economic conditions cause a large number of withdrawals, banks may require a large amount of cash in a short period of time.

Lines of Credit

In addition to deposits, unused space in lines of credit can quickly drain the liquidity of banks.

Debt Terms

A manufacturing company has a small reserve of cash and a large unused line of credit. The firm experiences a period of rapidly declining prices due to industry oversupply. They quickly run out of cash as their operating margins turn negative. The line of credit becomes unavailable due to their poor financial metrics. The firm starts to miss payments and suppliers stop supplying them with essential inputs. The business goes into a downward spiral and is quickly bankrupt.

Marketable Securities

An investor purchases a low volume small cap stock. The investor suddenly requires cash due to a personal emergency but has trouble selling the stock due to the low volume. The investor must set the price surprisingly low before their order finally fills. This results in a loss. If the investor had owned a high volume stock it could have been sold instantly at a market price with a low bid-ask spread.

Assets

An investor who has all of their net worth in real estate generates cash by selling properties on a regular basis at a profit and purchasing new ones. This works for the investor while the market is hot. When market conditions change, houses are difficult to sell and it takes over a year to complete a single sale. The investor is short on cash and must sell a few properties at exceptionally low prices to attract buyers in a down market.

Inherent Risk

Inherent Risk Jonathan Poland

Inherent risk is a term used in the field of auditing to describe the risk that a company’s financial statements may be misstated due to errors or fraud, regardless of the effectiveness of the company’s internal controls. In other words, inherent risk is the risk that exists independently of the company’s internal controls and is not mitigated by those controls.

There are several factors that contribute to inherent risk, including the complexity of the company’s operations, the level of judgment involved in preparing the financial statements, and the degree of subjectivity in the estimates and assumptions used in the financial statements.

Inherent risk is a concern for auditors because it can affect the accuracy and reliability of a company’s financial statements. As a result, auditors must consider inherent risk when planning and performing an audit, and must design their audit procedures to appropriately address the inherent risk of misstatement.

To mitigate inherent risk, auditors may use a variety of techniques, including testing transactions and account balances, reviewing documents and records, and performing substantive procedures. Auditors may also use analytical procedures, which involve comparing financial data to industry benchmarks or to the company’s prior financial statements, to identify unusual or unexpected transactions or trends that may indicate inherent risk.

Overall, inherent risk is an important consideration for auditors, as it can have a significant impact on the accuracy and reliability of a company’s financial statements.

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